Syndicated Research shows Rich Rod is actually Steve Spurrier

At Mgoanalytics, we are committed to responding to every comment with a thought provoking post. This has proven relatively easy so far, as our first comment was made this morning. Insert shameless shout out to UMgoblog.com here. Insert further derogatory remarks about other UM centric blogs here (that's means you mgoblog.com). In any event, it made sense, per our comment section, to look at sacks more holistically by doing a combined LB/DL analysis. The chart below supports this, since ~30% of the sacks in a DL/LB group come from the LBs:

2008 NFL Regular Season Sacks by Position (DL and LB only)

When looking at college conferences, the southern suspects dominate (again). I hate to do this, b/c we all know how insufferable SEC fans are (read 'Bama), but the fact is that their athletes perform better in the NFL. In this case, 50% better than the good guys:

2008 NFL Regular Season Sacks by College Conference

When you go school by school, the good guys look ok, unless you compare us to the SEC. Michigan=South Carolina. I'd be happy if this was a competition for hottest co-eds (it ain't). I'd be less happy if this was a competition for coaches past their prime (TBD, but I'm nervous). Since its an indication of defensive player development, I take solace in the fact that PSU is terrible, but want to know how Iowa is transforming 2-3 star talent into superior NFL performance. I think we already know the answer: Kirk Ferentz is a better talent evaluator than Tom Lemming.

2008 NFL Regular Season Sacks by College (Big 10, SEC)

The overall Top 10 is kinda of cool:

2008 NFL Regular Season Sacks by College (Top 10)

God help us if ND ever gets a good coach, b/c they have the talent. Other schools of interest:

#32 Texas 12.5 sacks

#51 DJU (formerly PSU) 5.5 sacks

#70 WVU 3 sacks

Here's to hoping that Greg Robinson is fully in charge of the defense...

The RBs in the NFL

While the ESPN data is great for getting a directional understanding of BCS schools at producing NFL quality talent, it doesn't really indicate the quality of the NFL players. To understand this, we'll break down 2008 NFL stats by conference. NFL.com lists player stats for the last season (http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=1&statisticPositionCategory=RUNNING_BACK&season=2008&seasonType=REG). This analysis uses the top 150 yardage earners in this year during the regular season. If we cross reference this with the ESPN.com data to get college affiliation (filling in the missing college stats for Deuce and others), we can correlate conferences with total production:

A couple of interesting findings:

1) When compared to the number of bodies, the BCS schools are producing more yardage and TDs than non-BCS schools. This analysis suggests that these schools have more impactful running backs than the smaller schools. Still, more than 30% of the yards in the NFL are coming from athletes that were (presumably) ignored by the BCS. I

2) The supposed SEC speed advantage shows up here. The Big 10 and SEC have a similar number of backs in the league (13.7 for Big 10, 13.2 for SEC), yet the Big 10 produces 55% fewer yards. Ouch. The TD situation is better, suggesting that Big 10 backs are finding niches as short yardage bruisers (see TJ Duckett).

3) The comparison becomes really interesting on a school by school breakdown:

A few more observations:

1) The Big 10 will miss Glenn Mason. Without his stable of backs, the Big 10 is a RB black hole. Even so, 5 SEC schools have better numbers than the top Big 10 school.

2) Wisconsin's reputation for producing RBs is total bunk. They don't show up at all. Ditto Steve Spurrier (but he doesn't really have a run 1st offense)

3) Michigan RBs don't produce in the NFL. Not too surprising with Chris Perry and Mike Hart being out last 2 NFL running backs.

We'll keep on digging through this. Next up: the WRs.