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Revisited: Five Outrageous Predictions after 1 week

Revisited: Five Outrageous Predictions after 1 week

Time to look back on the early season predictions:

1. Some portion of the Iowa fan base will try to run Ferentz out of town b/c they have 0 running game. This is one of those down years there that occurs roughly every other year at Iowa. Michigan fans would love/hate Ferentz as a coach. He's exactly like Lloyd Carr.  Uhh, not so much.  But that Northern Iowa game was awful
   
2. The Michigan fan base will be unfairly screaming for Greg Robinson's head at some point. Against a weak receiving core and a QB who couldn't hold onto the ball, he looked like an awesome DC. This defense will get toasted by someone, maybe as soon as next week. I'm not a pessimist, but did you see JT Floyd getting burned by that Nunez character?  Spot on.  Our secondary does suck.
   
3. Ron Zook is spending his last year as a D1 head coach. Check.
   
4. Someone other than Florida, Texas, and Oklahoma will win the national title. Someone from another team will win the Heisman.  Too soon to tell, but I'm betting on Alabama at this point
   
5. Ohio State is a mediocre team. Beanie Wells will be missed and TP cannot handle the load on his own. He's trying to do too much. It doesn't help that TP is clearly out to lunch. Google "Terrelle Pryor Michael Vick" for evidence. The defense looked slow and confused against Navy. The o-line continues to stink. Their final record: 7-5.  On track.  I'm going to replace the Wisonsin loss with a loss to Iowa.  Note: the Purdue prediction.  I based this on the fact that Tressel ball has never worked as well on the road.  
   

Team	Home/Away	Result
Navy	H	Win 31-27
USC	H	Loss 18-15
Toledo	Cleveland	Win 45-10
Illinois	H	Tight Win 16-13
Indiana	A	Huge Win 45-10
Wisconsin	H	Tight Loss 25-21
Purdue	A	Shocking Loss 30-28
Minnesota	H	Win 35-10
New Mexico State	H	Huge Win 50-7
Penn State	A	Big Loss 35-14
Iowa	H	Win 21-16
Michigan	A	Shocking Loss 35-28

Gameday Comparison, UM vs. DSU

Blogging from Brussels this week, hence the delay. This is essentially the worse program we have played. Ever.

NFL Stats comparison, UM vs DSU

Offense
QBs	Yards	TDs
Michigan	7512	65
Delaware State	0	0
RBs	Yards	TDs
Michigan	292	4
Delaware State	0	0
WR	Yards	TDs
Michigan	2963	12
Delaware State	0	0
Defense
DL	Tackles	Sacks
Michigan	70	7.5
Delaware State	0	0
LB	Tackles	Sacks
Michigan	427	15
Delaware State	0	0
DB	PBU	INTs
Michigan	51	10
Delaware State	0	0

Gameday Comparison: UM vs. Iowa

2008 NFL Stats: UM vs. Iowa

Offense
QBs (2007)	Yards	TDs
Michigan	7512	65
Iowa	0	0
RBs	Yards	TDs
Michigan	292	4
Iowa	206	1
WR	Yards	TDs
Michigan	2963	12
Iowa	0	0
Defense
DL	Tackles	Sacks
Michigan	70	7.5
Iowa	163	15.5
LB	Tackles	Sacks
Michigan	427	15
Iowa	172	10.5
DB	PBU	INTs
Michigan	51	10
Iowa	9	2

Which conference produces the most thugs?

This is a fun one.  Take NFL arrest data and cross reference it with college data from ESPN  (filling in the blanks where necessary).  This gives you the thugs per conference.  I normalized the data to the arrests/player (otherwise, the biggest conferences have the mosts arrests and that's not really insightful).  The result:

NFL Players Arrests by College Conference in the last Five Years

meh?  I was hoping the SEC would kill this one.  Didn't really expect the Pac 10 to win.  Interestingly, this trend holds up on any cut of the data (ie if you look at only the last 2, 3, or 4 years instead of the last 5, you still get the Pac 10 as the most felonious conference).  The Big 10 doesn't look so high and mighty anymore; we're producing just as many bad seeds as the rest of the conferences (if not more).  So much for our visions of a clean conference.  At least I get the Big 10 network on Direct TV.  I can see all of these future felons in HD.

I should note that this data only includes active NFL players.  Maurice Clarett doesn't get dropped in to OSU #s b/c he's out of the NFL.  I think looking at crimes committed by ex-NFLers would be too depressing to include.

Here is the number of arrests and arrests per player by college (Top Ten):

NFL Arrests by Player's College (Top Ten)

ugh.  I'm a huge Rich Rod fan.  I think he was the perfect hire for Michigan.  I'm convinced he'll turn UM into a Florida clone, which will spell OSU death. I just finished watching the 2007 Illinois/OSU game and it was clear how much trouble that team has defending a good spread option attack. In a few years, he'll have the Wolverines tearing up the Buckeyes (while still inexplicably dropping a game here and there to a team it should easily beat -- such is college football in the 85 scholarship era)

Still, this ain't good. In fairness, 6 of the 11 arrests are from 1 player (Pacman).   Still  WVU leads the NFL in player arrests and their players are by far and away the most likely to get arrested.  There's nearly a 1:1 ratio between Mountaineers in the NFL and arrests.  I think some of this is the reality of trying to win at a tier 2 school.  You have to take players the big boys won't touch (see: Moss, Randy or Devine, Noel for recent examples out of the Mountain State).

In any event, something to keep an eye on as he continues to recruit his type of player.

Gameday Comparison UM vs. MSU

How do the programs compare in the NFL? Pretty much as you'd expect, UM produces better talent everywhere except the DL.

2008 NFL Stats Comparison: UM vs MSU

Offense
QBs (2007 data)	Yards	TDs
Michigan	7512	65
Michigan State	0	0
RBs	Yards	TDs
Michigan	292	4
Michigan State	172	8
WR	Yards	TDs
Michigan	2963	12
Michigan State	1805	9
Defense
DL	Tackles	Sacks
Michigan	70	7.5
Michigan State	130	2
LB	Tackles	Sacks
Michigan	427	15
Michigan State	100	5
DB	PBU	INTs
Michigan	51	10
Michigan State	12	4

Further proof that the Big 10 hates Penn State

Here are the average penalties and yards by school for games refereed by Big 10 officials in 2008.  Strangely: the "Big 10 hates PSU" crowd doesn't seem to have a lot to stand on.  PSU was the least penalized team (by both # of penalties and yards penalized) in the league.